Favorites stage 3 Tirreno-Adriatico 2025 | 239 (!) km, strong winds and rain: A van der Poel day uphill?

He finished 140th on the first day of the time trial, and on day two, he sprinted for 20th place. Mathieu van der Poel took it easy on the first two days of Tirreno-Adriatico, but on day three, he can show what he's got towards Colfiorito. After a gruelingly long day of 239 kilometers (!), the finish line awaits at the end of a steady climb. IDLProCycling.com gives you a detailed preview!

Course stage 3 Tirreno-Adriatico 2025

On day three of the Tirreno-Adriatico, people who want to train for Milan-Sanremo will get their money's worth. The distance is 239 kilometers, something you don't see in a one-week stage race or grand tour anymore in 2025! Nevertheless, the organization has outlined a course that goes from the east coast in Follonica to the center of the country in Colfiorito. It is an immensely long ride, with two climbs along the way.

The climbs are not too bad: 12.3 kilometers (4.3 percent) and 5.2 kilometers (4.6 percent), respectively. Nevertheless, all eyes will be on the finish, as they will be on March 22 in Milan-Sanremo. We only ride 60 kilometers less on Wednesday, and the finish also looks slightly different.

We finish just after reaching the top of a climb of no less than 18.5 kilometers at an average of 3.1 percent. Van der Poel and his fellow riders must survive the first 2-kilometer phase at an average of 8 percent, after which it becomes quite a task for the GC teams to eliminate the others. Only after 14 kilometers of slight incline does the road climb for almost 5 kilometers at an average of 4.6 percent. The top is 4 kilometers from the finish line, which we reach in a descending and straight line.

Times
Start: 3:45 AM EST
Finish: around 9:44 AM EST

Weather stage 3 Tirreno-Adriatico 2025

The riders will start at 3:45 AM EST on Wednesday, and light rain may already fall in Follonica at the start. We must deal with changeable and mostly wet weather on the way to the finish. The wind will blow at a relatively strong force, and rain is expected at the finish in Colfiorito. Echelons? There are few open spaces in the Italian hills, but we are not ruling anything out on such a long day.

Favorites stage 3 Tirreno-Adriatico 2025

Oh well, this stage calls for Mathieu van der Poel. It will be a very tough day in these conditions, and with this distance, the Dutch rider can test himself. He should be able to survive the final climb, and maybe he is already making plans in the wind along the way. He will have to get rid of the fast riders somehow.

Jonathan Milan should not be ruled out. The Italian won a hilly stage for punchers on day 1 of the UAE Tour, and after his stage win on day 2, he already said that he has focused on climbing. Whether he can finish after 239 kilometers will be a good test for Milan-Sanremo on March 22.

In addition, we are looking for strong men who can finish in a sprint after a long, steady climb. Therefore, Filippo Ganna of INEOS Grenadiers is a very suitable candidate, as are Andrea Vendrame and especially Dorian Godon of Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale. We will watch Bryan Coquard of Cofidis and expect something from Jake Stewart of Israel-Premier Tech.

If it becomes too difficult for Milan and riders like Coquard and Paul Magnier (Soudal-Quick Step), Lidl-Trek still has Jasper Stuyven available. Does Q36.5 have Tom Pidcock, who is perhaps a little too much of a climber for such a finale? Maybe Tim van Dijke can surprise Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe; otherwise, the Germans have a nice option with Roger Adrià.

After Maikel Zijlaard's surprising second place on day 2, Tudor will undoubtedly aim for classics specialist Rick Pluimers. Of course, Magnus Cort of Uno-X is made for this job. The Dane is in top form. We are also curious about Alberto Bettiol, who might be able to do something with XDS-Astana and his Italian tricolor.  

Favorites stage 3 Tirreno-Adriatico 2025, according to IDLProCycling.com

Top favorites: Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Deceuninck) and Filippo Ganna (INEOS Grenadiers)
Outsiders: Magnus Cort (Uno-X), Jonathan Milan (Lidl-Trek), Dorian Godon (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale), Jake Stewart (Groupama-FDJ) and Tim van Dijke (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe)
Long Shots: Tom Pidcock (Q36.5), Roger Adrià (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe), Paul Magnier (Soudal-Quick Step), Bryan Coquard (Cofidis), Jasper Stuyven (Lidl-Trek), Andrea Vendrame (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale), Rick Pluimers (Tudor) and Alberto Bettiol (Astana)

Bram van der Ploeg (Twitter: @BvdPloegg | email: [email protected])     

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