Favorites stage 4 Tour Down Under 2024 | Welsford aims for full bingo card, but beware the 90-degree turn

With just 481 meters of elevation gain spread out across 136 kilometers of racing, there's no need for a detailed explanation: normally, the fourth stage of the Tour Down Under is the last chance for the sprinters to strike in the Australian stage race. Who will prevent Sam Welsford (BORA-hansgrohe) from claiming his third victory? IDLProCycling.com brings you up to speed!

Course stage 4 Tour Down Under 2024

We start in Murray Bridge, near the Murray River. From this spot, we set off straight towards the coast, which we will reach after about an hour of racing. The intermediate sprints after 66.5 kilometers and 82 kilometers will probably stir things up a bit, as the only climb of the day - Gemell Hill - won't be the decisive factor. At 4.2 kilometers with a 4 percent gradient, it's not particularly challenging.

From the top, we race through the inland towards Port Elliott, the finish location. From Goolwa, the final twelve kilometers run directly along the coast, where a 90-degree turn around five hundred meters from the finish will be crucial. The team that can navigate through this turn first, just like Welsford did in the past sprint stages, has a great chance of victory. But guys, please keep yourselves firmly upright, especially this early in the season!

Climbs
86.0 km: Gemmell Hill (4.2 km at 4%)

Times
Start: 11:10 AM locally (01:40 AM Dutch time)
Finish: 2:48 PM locally (05:18 AM Dutch time)

Weather stage 4 Tour Down Under 2024

We will be racing along the coast, but the wind is not strong enough to cause immediate carnage. With pleasant temperatures and sunshine, it is generally expected to be a classic sprinters' stage.

Favorites stage 4 Tour Down Under 2024

So far, we've had two sprinter stages Down Under, both with the same outcome: Sam Welsford emerging as the winner for BORA-hansgrohe. The Australian was perfectly led out both times by his sprint train, consisting of Danny van Poppel and Ryan Mullen, and he also managed to finish things off effortlessly each time. In this year's last sprinters' opportunity in the Tour Down Under, he can complete his bingo card.

The biggest compliment came inadvertently from Caleb Ewan on Thursday: "I was in Sam's wheel, but that's where everyone wants to be. So it was one big chaos," said the Jayco AlUla sprinter, who in theory, just like Phil Bauhaus (Bahrain Victorious) and Biniam Girmay (Intermarché-Wanty), should have the speed to rival Welsford.

Bauhaus came in second on day one, while Girmay has consistently been among the fastest sprinters so far. However, the African rider still faces some issues with his positioning, which has caused him to let riders like Dan McLay (Arkéa - B&B Hotels), Elia Viviani (INEOS Grenadiers), Álvaro José Hodeg (UAE-Team Emirates), Corbin Strong (Israel-Premier Tech) and Laurence Pithie (Groupama-FDJ) get ahead of him.

In terms of sprinters who could make the top five on a good day, we're also looking at Casper Pedersen (Soudal Quick-Step), Iván Garcia Cortina (Movistar), Max Kanter (Astana) and Emils Liepins (DSM-Firmenich PostNL). And who knows, perhaps Filippo Ganna might try to turn that last corner at 500 meters from the finish into a short time trial. However, he seems to ride primarily in service of Jhonatan Narváez for now.

Favorites stage 4 Tour Down Under 2024, according to IDLProCycling.com

Top favorites: Sam Welsford (BORA-hansgrohe) and Biniam Girmay (Intermarché-Wanty)
Outsiders: Phil Bauhaus (Bahrain Victorious), Caleb Ewan (Jayco AlUla), Dan McLay (Arkéa - B&B Hotels) and Laurence Pithie (Groupama-FDJ)
Long shots: Elia Viviani, Filippo Ganna (INEOS Grenadiers), Álvaro José Hodeg (UAE-Team Emirates), Corbin Strong (Israel-Premier Tech), Casper Pedersen (Soudal Quick-Step), Iván Garcia Cortina (Movistar), Max Kanter (Astana) and Emils Liepins (dsm-firmenich PostNL) 

Who will win stage 4 of the Tour Down Under 2024?