Favorites youth classification Tour de France 2024 | Finally free of Pogacar, these are the men who will battle for the white jersey!

On September 21, 1998, a small boy named Tadej was born in Slovenia. A prodigy who, nineteen years later, would astonish cycling fans with his incredible abilities on a bike. During his first years, he dominated the young rider classification in all the races he entered, as he was always among the best in the general classification. Until 2024. Tadej Pogacar turns 26 in September and he is finally too old for the white jersey. This means that – just like in the Giro d'Italia – we will finally get a real battle for the young rider classification for the first time in years!

Since Pogacar's debut in 2019, the fight for the white jersey was only interesting in grand tours where the Slovenian was not participating. In the 2019 Vuelta a España and the Tour de France editions from 2020 to 2023, the white jersey automatically went to him, simply because he ended up on the podium in all the grand tours he entered. In the Giro d'Italia this past May, Pogacar was already too old, and we saw a young rider classification with riders who genuinely competed for it. Antonio Tiberi emerged as the best. Who will it be in the Tour?

The concept of the young rider classification is quite simple: any rider born in 1999 or later is eligible, and the one who finishes highest in the general classification will stand on the podium in Nice wearing the white jersey. This rider will, after four consecutive decisions with Pogacar at the top, dethrone the Slovenian to join the ranks of riders like Egan Bernal, Simon and Adam Yates and Nairo Quintana!

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Preview of the Tour de France
Favorites general classification (yellow jersey)
Favorites points classification (green jersey)
Favorites mountain classification (polka-dot jersey)

Most recent winners Tour de France white jersey

2023 Tadej Pogacar
2022 Tadej Pogacar
2021 Tadej Pogacar
2020 Tadej Pogacar
2019 Egan Bernal
2018 Pierre Latour
2017 Simon Yates
2016 Adam Yates
2015 Nairo Quintana
2014 Thibaut Pinot

Favorites youth classification Tour de France 2024

To create this list, current and former editors of IDLProCycling.com were asked for their top ten answers to the question: "Who is most likely to win the young rider jersey in the Tour de France?" Points were assigned to each top ten as follows: 12 points for the first place, 10 for second, and so on down to 1 point. The total points for each rider were converted into a percentage of the maximum possible points and are indicated next to each rider. This gives a clearer picture of the perceived chances for each rider, according to IDLProCycling.com.

Romain Grégoire- Groupama-FDJ: 5/72 (6.9%)

Listing ten established general classification contenders for the white jersey is unprecedented. In such a classification, it's always a bit of a gamble on young talents who might exceed expectations. Consider Romain Grégoire, who, in just his second year as a pro with Groupama-FDJ, is already making it to the Tour de France. The 21-year-old Frenchman is very explosive, a fantastic climber, but has so far excelled more in one-day races and breakaways than in overall standings.

Normally, he will fulfill that role in the Tour, having already secured a notable stage victory in the Tour of the Basque Country. Grégoire may stand close in the young rider classification in the first week, but can he maintain it over three weeks? His friend, teammate, and peer Lenny Martinez seems more suited for that. But more on him later...

Tobias Halland Johannessen - Uno-X Mobility: 14/72 (19.4%)

Tobias Halland Johannessen can perhaps be placed in the same category as Grégoire, although there might be even more potential in the 24-year-old Norwegian ridinig for Uno-X. After winning the highly regarded U23 Tour de l'Avenir in 2021, he joined the senior ranks. He immediately proved to be an excellent general classification rider in second-tier stage races and, after overcoming injury issues, made his Tour debut in 2023, where he was very active as an attacker.

This year, he may be present in a similar role, but in peak form, Johannessen could easily achieve a solid top ten. He hasn't done it at such a high level yet, but there's a first time for everything... If he's lucky enough to have his peers not deliver, the white jersey could be within reach.

Oier Lazkano - Movistar Team: 15/72 (20.8%)

Another typical attacker and actually a classics specialist. What is he doing on this list? Well, Oier Lazkano is still discovering himself, and after achieving excellent results in one-day races, he suddenly found himself among established general classification riders in the top ten this year. The outgoing Spanish champion won the Clásica Jaén and finished third in Kuurne, but surprised everyone with a ninth place in the Critérium du Dauphiné.

In the final mountain stages, Lazkano finished among the best, though still at a respectable distance from the stage winners. However, this speaks volumes about the engine within the 1.89-meter tall rider. Movistar is focusing on Enric Mas in the Tour, but don't be surprised if Lazkano stays close to the top ten with some impressive attacks...

Lenny Martinez - Groupama-FDJ: 17/72 (23.6%)

Here we have Lenny, the wonderkid of Groupama-FDJ mentioned alongside Grégoire. Likely moving to Bahrain Victorious in 2025, but not before making a surprising Tour debut for the team that developed him. Martinez is, like Grégoire, on his second WorldTour season, and while his peer made a mark in punchy finishes, Martinez has been climbing with the best in stage races and one-day hill races for two seasons.

20-year-old Martinez already has an impressive resume. After winning CIC - Mont Ventoux last season, he has already secured five victories this season, all in tough climbing races. His results in stage races might be even more impressive. He finished second behind Jonas Vingegaard in O Gran Camiño, seventh in Catalonia, and eighth in Romandy. Although he underperformed in the Tour of Switerland after a high-altitude training camp, he showed signs of improvement in the final mountain time trial (sixth), and is likely to shine in the Tour. Bring it on, Martinez!

Tom Pidcock - INEOS Grenadiers: 34/72 (47.2%)

The percentages are now rising sharply, which is no surprise. We are now entering that group of riders who have a realistic chance of winning the white jersey, starting with Tom Pidcock. The 24-year-young all-rounder is competing in this classification for the last time, and don't be surprised if he takes home the jersey to match in Nice. Pidcock is a unique athlete who continues to combine cyclo-cross, mountain biking and road racing, but also delivers in all disciplines.

In the winter, he expressed his ambition to aim for the top five in the Tour de France. Makes sense, after flirting with the top ten in 2022 and 2023. That one bad day needs to be avoided, and his climbing needs improvement, but Pidcock is a serious threat to other general classification riders. Winning a mountain bike race a week before the Tour should help him in the opening weekend. His training at altitude and in the Tour of Switzerland should provide the stamina to compete in the third week.

Santiago Buitrago - Bahrain Victorious: 36/72 (50.0%)

Bahrain Victorious is making remarkable choices this season, and we cannot say they are bad ones. They overlooked a veteran like Wout Poels for the Giro d'Italia, placing all hope on rookie Antonio Tiberi, who immediately delivered with a fifth place and the young rider jersey. The team has a similar plan for the Tour, with Santiago Buitrago as the 24-year-old newcomer among the big names.

The Colombian has earned his stripes in the peloton, more so than Tiberi, so Bahrain Victorious' confidence in the climber is not unfounded. His performances in stage races have not been spectacular this year, although he was in good form early in 2024, bringing in a second place in the Tour of Valencia. Lots of high-altitude training should see him start the Tour in peak form, where he will not be targeting stage wins as in the Giro d'Italia of 2022 and 2023, but will focus on the overall classification. The white jersey was already mentioned as a goal during the team presentation.

Matteo Jorgenson - Visma | Lease a Bike: 37/72 (51.4%)

When you start smashing results after a transfer to Visma | Lease a Bike, winning Paris-Nice and finishing second in the Dauphiné, you're more than just a domestique for Vingegaard in the Tour. In his new team, Matteo Jorgenson found the guidance that his potential deserved, unlike at Movistar. High-altitude training, major stage races, and now he is a shadow leader for the Tour.

In theory, all eyes are on Vingegaard, but how good is the Dane? That is a question nobody can answer as of yet. The only thing we know for sure is that Jorgenson has kept up with the best in both one-day races and stage races this season, and his team says he has improved even more during his latest high-altitude training. Even if Vingegaard performs well, Jorgenson could still aim for a strong overall classification. The white jersey, which he already won in Paris-Nice and the Dauphiné, could be within grasp.

Juan Ayuso - UAE-Team Emirates: 53/72 (73.6%)

Matteo Jorgenson, but the UAE-Team Emirates version. Not an explicit leader in the Tour, because that role of course goes to Pogacar. But expectations for Juan Ayuso are high for his debut. He is on his third WorldTour season, and has impressed in every race he has entered. Third in his debut Vuelta a España in 2022, fourth behind the invincible Jumbo-Visma podium in the Vuelta of 2023, overall winner in the Tour of the Basque Country this year, and ‘best of the rest’ behind Vingegaard in the Tirreno.

Ayuso is supporting Pogacar, but to what extent will UAE riders have to sacrifice their own ambitions for the Slovenian’s yellow jersey ambitions? With Adam Yates, João Almeida, Pavel Sivakov and Marc Soler also onboard, there is no shortage of climbing power. And Visma | Lease a Bike proved in the Vuelta of 2023 that you can place three riders on the podium if you are simply better than the rest. Ayuso won’t want to lose time, so he might surprise by delivering the white jersey and a strong overall result in his first Tour de France.

Carlos Rodriguez - INEOS Grenadiers: 60/72 (83.3%)

Spain is well-stocked with stage race talent these years. Besides Ayuso, Carlos Rodriguez has been impressing in the WorldTour for the last 3.5 years. The 23-year-old rider of INEOS Grenadiers finished fifth in his first Tour last year. And to think he was on track for a podium spot until he had a hard crash in the final week. The same happened in the 2022 Vuelta a España, where he finished seventh, but without the crash, he might have matched Ayuso's performance.

INEOS is aiming for a strong overall result with Rodriguez, despite Pidcock and Egan Bernal having the same ambition. That shouldn’t be a problem, because when Pogacar and Vingegaard go, the legs will determine who can follow. His preparation seems perfect once again. Rodriguez finished second in the Basque Country and closed the Dauphiné with a stage win and fourth place overall. "Better than ever," he said himself. Which makes him an immediate top favorite for white.

Remco Evenepoel - Soudal-Quick Step: 66/72 (91.7%)

One major disadvantage for Rodriguez: there is a competitor at Soudal-Quick Step who potentially could be even better. Remco Evenepoel is finally riding the Tour de France, something Belgium has been eagerly waiting for for years. Evenepoel took it easy since his debut in 2019. Despite his well-known top results in monuments, world championships and week-long stage races, he only participated in his first grand tour in 2021 (partly due to a severe fall in Lombardy in 2022). At the time, the Giro d’Italia was a challenge without having that race rhythm in the legs.

In 2022, everything was focused on the Vuelta a España, which turned out to be a great success. Evenepoel won the overall classification and also took the rainbow jersey in Australia. The Tour in 2023 then? No, he first had to make amends in the Giro. He fought hard for the pink jersey, but COVID-19 interfered. In the Vuelta a España, one off day led to a different race tactic. Evenepoel won a total of three stages and the mountain jersey. So he was ready for the Tour. After his crash in the Basque Country (and the broken shoulder blade that resulted from the crash), the Dauphiné was not great, but Evenepoel seems ready for the battle for the podium.